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Riding The Golden Bubble
Written by Lara Crigger   
March 01, 2010 3:36 pm EST

 

Podcast listeners might remember a few months ago when I bet our research editor a steak dinner that gold would top $1,250/oz before it would sink back below $1,000/oz. For awhile there, things weren't looking too good for me or my appetite, as gold plunged off its December highs like a diver in free fall; the metal scraped as low as $1,052/oz early last month. But as gold closed above $1,117/oz on Friday, I'm happy to say that I might just get my dead cow after all:


Gold Price, February 2010

Gold Price, February 2010

Source: Kitco.com

 

Of course, renewed strength in gold means a revival of The Big Question from last fall: Is gold in a bubble? This time, however, it seems the answer on everyone's lips is: "Who cares?"

"I absolutely believe [gold's] heading into a bubble, but that's why you buy it," Charles Morris, manager of HSBC Global Asset Management's $2.5 billion Absolute Return Fund, told Bloomberg earlier today. After predicting that gold could hit as high as $5,000/oz in the next five years, he added, with shades of Gordon Gekko, "A bubble is good."

Investors Big And Small Piling Into Gold

Perhaps that's why we've seen such incredible upswing in investment demand for the yellow metal year over year, particularly in ETFs. According to the World Gold Council, ETF demand in 2009 hit 594.7 tonnes—85 percent higher than 2008 levels. Granted, most of that was driven by outsized buying in the first quarter of '09, as investors, smarting from the 2008 financial crisis, fled perilous markets into supposed safe haven assets like gold. Still, ETF buying has remained brisk, with demand in Q4 2009 hitting 31.6 tonnes.

Most of that demand has gravitated toward the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE Arca: GLD), the world's biggest bullion-backed ETF and the second-largest ETF overall. Investors big and small piled into GLD last year, which saw $13.8 billion in new net investment dollars in 2009. The fund now sits at over $35.4 billion in assets under management.

Even noted gold skeptics now want a piece of the action. Famed hedge fund manager George Soros—who not too long ago dubbed gold the "ultimate bubble"—has increased his GLD holdings; in the fourth quarter of last year alone, Soros Fund Management bumped its holdings in GLD by 152 percent. According to Bloomberg data, as of Dec. 31, 2009, the firm is now the fourth-largest holder of GLD, at 6,178,342 shares.

Still, that's nothing compared with John Paulson's ETF bet: Paulson & Co. holds 31.5 million shares of GLD (nearly 96 tons' worth)—which, at today's prices, is worth just under $3.45 billion.



 

 
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Comments (4)

 Tuesday, 02 March 2010 4:37 EST - Posted by sharetipsinfo

 
Hi,

Stock market India is volatile and all those who speculate in market are loosing everyday. Please remember stock market is not for speculation purpose. If one feel investing in stock market is gamble then its better to think again.

One should always note that if they want to invest money they should do proper research be it fundamental research or technical research. Just think how come you can invest
your money without any convincing reason for the same?

Indian stock market is one of the most happening and emerging market. Major Indian stock exchanges are BSE and NSE and both are of world class standards.

So grab good stocks and invest that’s the bottom line.

We hope to see you in major profits.

Regards
SHARETIPSINFO TEAM

 Sunday, 07 March 2010 8:11 EST - Posted by CrisisMaven

 
A bubble in, say, shares, stocks or commodities happens when people believe it will "go up and up" (and is, as a rule, as with housing recently and "tech" stocks at the beginning of the millenium, again mainly driven by money inflation). Gold in contrast is a hedge against inflation and against looming sovereign defaults. Inflation by definition is the increase in money supply. There's no doubt that this has happened several fold in only two years. So there is inflation. Hence there is no gold bubble, as gold has not appreciated by a tenth even of what the monetary base has expanded!

 Sunday, 07 March 2010 8:13 EST - Posted by CrisisMaven

 
Here are some links, btw.:
Sovereign default. crisismaven.wordpress.com/2010/02/08/bloom-of-doom-v-we-have-control-of-the-ship-we-have-a-plan/
Do we see a gold bubble? crisismaven.wordpress.com/2010/01/24/do-we-see-a-gold-bubble/

 Tuesday, 09 March 2010 23:59 EST - Posted by Keri

 
One of the reasons GLD has increased much more than the other two ETF's is because the COMEX allows for shares of GLD to be offered as all/part of the cash leg on a "real" gold futures contract, or, to quote COMEX: "as the physical commodity component for an EFP transaction involving COMEX gold futures contracts, provided that all elements of a bona fide EFP pursuant to Exchange Rule 104.36 are satisfied." GLD shares can be used to "deliver," but not all ETF's are qualified. I don't know the list of qualified EFT's, but I know that GLD (aka SPDR Gold Trust) shares are approved. (www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/market-regulation/SER-4942.html).

Of course, whether or not this should be allowed is something of another conversation. I think not, but people at the CFTC aren't listening to me. Or Ted Butler, or that matter.



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