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Inflation Moderating, Say The Feds
Written by Brad Zigler   
June 17, 2010 11:44 am EDT
Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): -3.5%

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, things got cheaper last month. Yesterday, Producer Price Index figures were released showing wholesale prices for finished goods dipped 0.3 percent in May, mostly due to declines in energy and food prices. Take out foods and energy and the core rate rises 0.2 percent.

It's pretty much the same in the retail market. Consumer Price Index data released this morning shows the Consumer Price Index slipped 0.2 percent last month. It was soft energy prices that accounted for the decline.

 

Year-Over-Year Inflation Metrics

Year-Over-Year Inflation Metrics

 

The month of May was a lousy one for energy bulls. But we're now seeing a turnaround in energy prices that could, if sustained, take some downside pressure off the inflation metrics next month.

In fact, we're seeing a rebound in the daily monetary inflation numbers. If you're a regular reader of the Desktop, you might have noticed the 12-month monetary inflation rate reached -5.4 percent on June 8 after a month in the red. Since then, the rate's headed north (the graphic above, updated monthly on a lagging basis to make it consistent with BLS data, doesn't reflect this turnaround yet).

It's a little early to be talking up a reflation story, but the monetary index has been a fairly reliable indicator of future price trends.

With that in mind, keep your eye on Desktop headlines for daily inflation updates.



 

 
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